Simply how good are Lando Norris’ possibilities of overtaking Max Verstappen for the Method 1 title?
Norris enters america Grand Prix weekend 52 factors behind Verstappen with six Grand Prix races and three dash races to go. The USGP is the primary of the three remaining dash weekends, with a most of 34 factors out there. The winner of the dash race will obtain eight factors (second place receives seven, third will get six and so forth), whereas the winner of Sunday’s Grand Prix (Midday, ABC) can earn 25 factors with an additional level for the quickest lap.
Norris is the favourite to get the win on Sunday, too. He’s +100 to win the race at BetMGM. Verstappen, final 12 months’s race winner, is the No. 2 favourite at +400 whereas Norris’ McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is at +500.
If Norris wins the dash race and the Grand Prix whereas getting the quickest lap and Verstappen finishes second in each, he’ll acquire simply 9 factors on the three-time champion. That’s a good chunk of factors. Nevertheless it wouldn’t be sufficient of a fee to catch Verstappen. Due to Daniel Ricciardo’s quick lap on the finish of the newest race in Singapore, Verstappen can nonetheless win the title ending second to Norris in each dash and Grand Prix remaining.
That’s why he’s nonetheless -190 to win the championship at BetMGM. Norris’ odds could also be a bit inflated, too. Norris is +140 to win the title. However to do this, he’ll want some misfortune from Verstappen whereas avoiding issues of his personal. And that could be an excessive amount of to ask.
Since Method 1 carried out its present factors construction in 2010, a driver has overcome a deficit with six races to go simply twice. And that driver was Sebastian Vettel.
In 2010, Vettel sat third within the standings and 31 factors again of Lewis Hamilton after a Fifteenth-place end on the Belgian Grand Prix. Vettel went on to complete fourth and second within the subsequent two races earlier than successful three of the ultimate 4 races of that season. And it was nonetheless an extremely shut factors race.
Vettel entered the ultimate race of the 2010 season 15 factors again of Fernando Alonso and 7 factors again of Purple Bull teammate Mark Webber. He scored the pole for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and led 40 of 55 laps whereas Alonso was seventh and Webber was eighth. That was simply sufficient for Vettel to get a four-point win over Alonso.
Two years later, Vettel trailed Alonso once more with six races to go. After a win in Singapore, Vettel lower Alonso’s factors result in 29 with six races to go. This time, he erased that deficit a lot faster. Vettel’s victory in Singapore was his first of 4 straight and he took over the factors lead from Alonso after the third victory. Following a victory on the Korean Grand Prix, Vettel was six factors forward of Alonso.
He by no means misplaced the factors lead after that, although Alonso made it shut within the season finale. Alonso completed second in Brazil whereas Vettel was sixth. Vettel went on to win his third consecutive title by simply three factors.
In every of the opposite 12 seasons, the driving force holding the factors lead with six races to go has gone on to win the title. That features Nico Rosberg (+8) in 2016 and Verstappen (+6) in the course of the iconic 2021 season.
That stat bodes very, very properly for Verstappen. He has a major benefit, even when Norris at present has extra tempo. However until you are a Verstappen fan, you possibly can at the very least take solace in the truth that F1 seems to have a real title race on its palms. Two years in the past, Verstappen had a 116-point lead at this level within the season and clinched the title with six races to go in 2023.